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- Trends of political violence in West Africa: Analysis at region level
Trends of political violence in West Africa: Analysis at region level
Weekly rates of political violent events at the region level. The weekly rates of political violent events (and of fatalities related to those events) represents the expected number of events per week (or fatalities per week) after smoothing out weekly fluctuations. The weekly rates are calculated for regions, i.e. including all political violent events within the region.
For event based indicators, the weekly rate is the average number of events per week.
For fatalities based indicators, the weekly rate is the average number of fatalities per week from those events.
There are three types of events: Violence against civilians, Battles, Explosions and remote violence.
Regions:
• Lake Chad: parts of Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon that form the watershed of the Lake Chad (the area that drains to that lake).
• Central Sahel: parts of Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
There is one data point (weekly rate) for every week since January 1st, 2015, for every type of event and for the sum of all three event’s types. Weekly rates are calculated for the events, and for the fatalities related to those events.
The calculation of the weekly rates is performed using input data from ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, https://acleddata.com) and following the method in Prieto-Curiel et al., 2023 (https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291514). A short description of the method follows:
1. Start with the cumulative total: C(t) = total events (or fatalities) up to week t.
2. Fit a piecewise-linear model to this curve.
3. Within each segment (between change-points), C(t) ≈ λ × t + constant.
4. The slope λ of each segment is the estimated weekly rate.